Today, how a Biden win in the U.S. could cost Brazil’s Foreign Minister his job.. The plans to vaccinate Brazilians against Covid-19 in January. And what you need to know about Brazil’s municipal races.[sc name=”shortcode_daily”]
Biden win could lead to cabinet reshuffle in Brazil
The U.S. presidential election will take place in 18 days — but more than 15 million Americans have already voted early. [restricted]And the odds suggest that former Vice President Joe Biden will unseat Donald Trump (per FiveThirtyEight’s model, Mr. Biden has an 87-percent chance to win the electoral college). And while a Biden win shouldn’t substantially alter the nature of Brazil-U.S.’ never-too-hot-never-too-cold relations, it could lead to changes in the Jair Bolsonaro cabinet.
- According to Brasília correspondent Débora Álvares, the Brazilian president’s newfound allies — a group of ideology-free parties known as the “Big Center” — want to use the U.S. election as a pretext to bin Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo, which they have reportedly been looking forward to for some time.
- Mr. Araújo is known for his anti-globalist, Sinophobic views. He also wrote once that Donald Trump is the West’s hope for salvation against “Stalin’s or Mao’s or Pol Pot’s henchmen.” He has become a nuisance for the Brazilian political establishment, in particular those defending the interests of agribusiness — who see China as their best client, not an existential threat.
- His latest controversy involved hosting U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on a visit to the Venezuelan border, just weeks before the U.S. election. The Foreign Minister was accused of jeopardizing future relations with a potential future Biden administration.
Scapegoat. Mr. Araújo is accused by career diplomats of undermining centuries of diplomatic tradition in less than two years. But while he has become a lightning rod for criticism, the minister is following the tone set by the president himself — who has made countless displays of sycophancy towards Donald Trump and hostility towards China.
Why it matters. Ernesto Araújo is arguably the cabinet member who is the most loyal to the Bolsonaro family — and champions the president’s positions unapologetically.
- Getting rid of Mr. Araújo would be yet another example of Mr. Bolsonaro breaking with Bolsonarism — in a movement towards moderation (at least in tone) to ensure stability to the administration. Those are calculated moves by a president who has proved to be much savvier than given credit for: while remaining firmly on the right wing, he is attempting to gain ground among less radical supporters, while knowing he remains the best (perhaps only) option for hardcore far-right voters.
You should listen: Explaining Brazil #117: Biden or Trump, what changes for Brazil?
Government announces Covid-19 vaccine plan for January
The Brazilian Health Ministry presented its 2021 National Immunizations Program on Thursday, which forecasts distributing a coronavirus vaccine as early as January 2021. The first phase of the plan is to make 15 million doses available, to be used on 7 percent of the population.
- While four potential vaccines are being tested in Brazil, only one — being developed by the University of Oxford and British-Swedish pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca — made it onto the national vaccine calendar. The government believes trials of that vaccine will be complete by November.
- The ministry’s decision not to include the potential vaccine being developed by Chinese company Sinovac Biotech in partnership with the São Paulo state government came across as puzzling. A council of state health officials asked, in a letter, for the government to reconsider.
Why it matters. The Health Ministry’s move reignites fears that President Jair Bolsonaro will turn the coronavirus vaccine into a new political war — as he aims to score points on São Paulo Governor João Doria, one of his fiercest political rivals.
Anti-vaxxer? Polls show Brazilians are eager to get a vaccine — and many want immunization to be mandatory. However, Mr. Bolsonaro has leaned in the opposite direction, even voicing some arguments used by anti-vaxxer movements, such as individual freedoms. In August, he said “nobody can force anybody to take a vaccine.”
- Moreover, experts fear the president’s supporters could become overly skeptical of what they call “the Chinese vaccine” and refuse immunization. A new poll conducted by Brazilian and Canadian universities show that only 54 percent of government supporters want to take a vaccine — versus 79 percent among detractors.
Election 2020 snapshot
Brazil’s municipal elections will take place in exactly 30 days’ time. This is what you need to know:
- Ads. This week marked the beginning of political ads on television and radio — which, with millions of people still staying home, gained renewed importance in 2020. Candidates have the right to free airtime, but it is distributed between all political parties, in proportion with the number of seats the party holds in their respective state legislatures.
- São Paulo. Incumbent Bruno Covas — who leads a six-party coalition — monopolizes 40 percent of airtime in São Paulo, and it has worked to his advantage. The latest poll showed him virtually tied with the frontrunner, Congressman Celso Russomano (22 and 25 percent of votes, respectively). More importantly, Mr. Covas lowered his rejection rates by 8 points — to 23 percent.
- Leftist debacle. The Workers’ Party has won the race for São Paulo City Hall three times since Brazil’s return to democracy — no small feat, given the city’s more conservative leaning. However, the party continues its downfall, which started in 2016. Candidate Jilmar Tatto, a Lula loyalist, is unknown to most voters and polls at just 1 percent. Many in the party’s top brass have said he should drop out and endorse far-left candidate Guilherme Boulos, who is polling third with 10 percent.
- Xenophobia as a platform. Two mayoral candidates in the Roraima state capital of Boa Vista, in Brazil’s North, are facing charges of inciting racism. Federal prosecutors acted after the candidates made discrimination against Venezuelan migrants the cornerstone of their campaigns. One used the slogan: “Venezuelans will not have privileges,” while the other promises to “limit Venezuelans’ access to healthcare and education.” Roraima has received an inflow of Venezuelan migrants in recent years, as they flee their country’s full-scale socioeconomic collapse.
What else you need to know today
- Cabinet. Communications Minister Fábio Faria has tested positive for Covid-19, but has only shown mild symptoms and will continue to work remotely. Mr. Faria took office in June following a cabinet reshuffle, and has quickly become one of the president’s most influential advisors, helping to tame his demeanor and abandon the constant attacks against Congress and the Supreme Court.
- Bounceback. The São Paulo state government is set to announce its economic recovery plan today, expected to rely heavily on privatizations — something Governor João Doria supported long before the pandemic. Another pillar of the plan will be an austerity package approved by the state legislature, which cuts back on tax breaks and creates a voluntary redundancy program to axe 5,000 civil servant positions.
- Top 5 worldwide. After confirming over 15,000 new coronavirus infections and 350 deaths, Argentina became the country with the fifth-highest number of cases in the world, while its death tally is 12th-largest. Argentina was one of the first Latin American countries to respond to the coronavirus pandemic, with the government placing the country under lockdown by March 20 — even before European countries such as Germany. Massive inequality and the prevalence of informal labor, however, made it impossible to fully enforce restrictive measures.
- Butt-gate. Senator Chico Rodrigues — caught stashing BRL 30,000 “between his buttocks,” according to the Federal Police — was relieved from his duties as the government’s deputy whip. Moreover, the Supreme Court ordered his 90-day suspension from the Senate, a decision that must be approved by his peers before being enforced. But Mr. Rodrigues seems to be safe from impeachment, at least for now, as the Senate’s Ethics Committee (of which the senator is a member, ironically) is not currently holding in-person sittings.
- Spread. Only eight of Brazil’s 5,570 municipalities have not recorded a single Covid-19 case — and none of them have more than 7,000 inhabitants. So far, Brazil has registered 5.17 million infections and 152,460 deaths. There are at least 93 potential cases of reinfection being analyzed in the country.[/restricted]